NFL

NFL Betting Strategy

Utilizing an NFL betting strategy is important if you want to have the opportunity to maintain and cultivate a healthy bankroll. The NFL regular season offers sports bettors approximately 50 basic betting opportunities a week as well as a full range of props, in-play wagering, and parlay opportunities. Plus, there’s a robust playoff structure that ends with one of the biggest action magnets in the world, the Super Bowl.  In this quick NFL strategy guide, we’ll provide you with tips, techniques, and tools that will give you an edge and allow you to make the most of your bankroll. 

The Professional Football Season 

The NFL regular season consists of 272 games. Each of the NFL's 32 teams plays 17 games during an 18-week period with one "bye" week off.  Plus, there are the playoffs which include 11 more games. There are a total of 22-betting weeks, not including the preseason. 

In 2021, each team played three preseason games. We don’t suggest players engage in preseason betting, as teams are trying out players, playing starters minimally, and making numerous adjustments. Instead of wagering on preseason football, wager on MLB. In August and early September, as it offers great sports betting opportunities.

NFL Betting Strategy – The Long Run

Our NFL betting strategy starts with the proviso that you’ll do a lot better and stay in the game much longer and stronger if you utilize your bankroll in an effective and efficient manner. Consider the long run and bet in a manner that will optimize your opportunities to cash while reducing your risk.

Divide your bankroll into betting units. At the minimum, you should be wagering with a total of 50 units. Although 100 to 200 units are preferred. As an example, if your bankroll is $100, divide it into 50 units with each unit being worth $2.00. When wagering, never risk more than 6% of your cash (three units/$6.00) on any one bet. In one week, never risk more than 20 percent of your roll. This money management technique ensures you’ll be able to stay in the game for five weeks. After those five weeks, you can reassess your bankroll and make appropriate adjustments, which may include lowering or raising the worth each unit, adding to your bankroll, or saving some of your winnings. 

Analysis Tips 

Here are 10 quick NFL analysis tips:

• Pay attention to both sides of the ball.

• Crunch numbers and compare offense and offense, defense and defense, and offense and defense.

• Assess each offensive line, as this unit is essential to any team’s success.

• Isolate and rate each unit on both sides of the ball.

• Special teams – how dependable are they and are there any players who are difference makers?

• When these two teams last met who won, by how much, and what has changed since then?

• What are the points for/points against differentials, and does it give either team an edge? 

• Are there any key players who are injured, ill, or questionable?

• Is there a coaching advantage?

• Assess home field advantage, weather (if applicable), and any other factors.

The Week 

Your betting week starts with a review of the lines when they are first posted, which is usually late Sunday and into Monday. Along with reviewing the week’s games, look for deals, as initial postings tend to be soft. You may find some deals at this point. As the week progresses, odds will tighten and become tougher to beat. 

Within reason, identify five to nine promising games for that week. Note, in the end, you are looking to wager on five to seven games. Once you’ve decided which contests look promising, start doing some preliminary research to narrow your choices. Look for solid point spread action, possible moneyline upsets, and promising over/unders. Once you’ve decided which games to wager on, it’s time to crunch numbers, compare teams and players, and discover any possible edge. 

Decide which picks look to be as close to a sure thing as possible and which are more questionable. If wagering 20 units, bet three on those contests that show the most promise and one-to-two on the other games. Note, these are single bets and not parlays. If wagering on five games, you may end up placing two six-unit wagers and three two-unit bets, for a total of 12 units. (There’s no rule that says you must wager all 20 units.) If there’s a game you feel strongly about, place four or five units on it and save the remaining cash for next week.  

Other Bets

Our NFL betting strategy also leaves room for betting a two or three-team parlay or select props. Only wager on props that you can handicap. Stay away from any props, such as who will score first, that depend entirely on chance. 

The Don’ts 

We gave you 10 NFL betting tips, here are 10 things you should never do:

• Generally, steer clear of chasing losses. Don’t attempt to make up for negative outcomes with Monday Night Football or risking your cash on outlandish wagers. 

• When making your wagering decisions, never do so when angry, depressed, inebriated, or high.

• If you watch NFL pregame shows, do not base your betting choices on their prognostications.  Although the analysts are knowledgeable, they are not making their picks against the spread, and these shows are more interested in creating banter than accurate picks. 

• Computer picks can be helpful, but they cannot supplant the work you need to do to ensure you’ve done all you can to make a good pick. 

• Stay away from any wager that is completely based on chance.

• Do not adhere to the Martingale System, where you double your wager after a loss, or fall prey to the Gambler’s Fallacy, which is the belief that wins and losses eventually even out.

• Don’t use a pick service that promises you a 70 percent or higher success rate. 

• There’s often value in the less popular matchups, don’t feel like you must bet on the week’s big games. 

• Do not adhere to simple and inaccurate generalizations, such as the home team always wins, the favorite always wins or at least covers, a franchise is bound to win, and a team always loses after their bye-week. None of these or other bromides are true. 

• Don’t bet as a fan; bet as an analyst. 

NFL Betting Strategy – Last Thoughts

Don’t get caught up in focusing on the big games. The fact is you can often find value in contests that are not in the spotlight. You should be in this for the entire regular and postseason. That means your NFL betting strategy needs to focus on facts and stats. Do your research and understand that to start making money at -110, you must win 52.4 percent of the games on which you wager.  However, this percentage begins to fluctuate when playing the moneyline, adding in props, and engaging in unit betting. Still, it’s a good stat to keep in mind. 

How good are the pros?  A successful sports bettor has an average winning percentage of around 63 percent. That’s a tough nut to crack. Some weeks you may nail almost every bet, and then you’ll have a week where you can’t seem to get anything right. Don’t panic and don’t make desperate wagers. Studied, steady, and sure-headed analysis are your best tools to ensure you have the best betting experience possible. 

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