NCAAF
About NCAAF
The NCAA Division I Football Bowl Subdivision, formerly known as Division I-A, is the top level of college football in the United States. If you are an NFL bettor, college football spreads and over/unders may be confusing. This sport, which offers hundreds of games each week, provides premium wagering opportunities throughout the regular season and after Thanksgiving when more than 40 bowl games are played. Learn more about NCAAF Betting Strategy.
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Atlantic Coast Conference - ACC
NCAAF Betting Strategy
NCAAF betting strategy is different from NFL strategy. There are a few reasons for this. First, when it comes to college football betting, you’ll find many more mismatches than you will in the NFL. Plus, there are 130 Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) teams and just 32 NFL teams. Thus, in college football, the talent level varies greatly. Also, the NFL is one league, while NCAAF has 10 conferences plus a strong roster of seven independent teams. Finally, out-of-conference play provides the sports bettor with analytical challenges that simply don’t exist when handicapping NFL contests.
The College Football Season
Consider the fact that in 2000, there were 116 FBS teams in 11 conferences with nine of those teams playing as independents. In that same year, there were 25 bowl games. In 2021, there are 130 FBS teams in 10 conferences and 43 bowl games. That means in 2021 there are 780 regular-season games played over the course of 13 weeks. The current NCAAF season is much more complex and daunting than it was 20 years ago. At the same time, in 2021 college football bettors have many more chances to make cash.
NCAAF Betting Strategy – Finding the Best Games
With so many conferences and teams, our NCAAF betting strategy advises that you need to choose the games on which you’re going to bet carefully. The marquee matchups tend to be more carefully and tightly handicapped while those that are less important will often offer solid value. Again, as it is with the NFL, review odds as soon as they’re posted, as these can be soft. Of course, to recognize a good deal, you’re going to need to understand each conference and team. Don’t be dissuaded by odds that feature large spreads and high totals. These could be sound bets on the favorite and over. Of course, never make a bet based on a simple review of the odds or the advice of someone else. Perform your analysis, which includes a breakdown of team and individual stats, review of each offensive and defensive unit, and research regarding recent past performance, player injuries, and coaching strengths and weaknesses. Will weather, homefield, or past meetings be factors? In the end, if you don’t have a clear picture of what bet you should make and/or what side, then don’t take the action. Find another game.
Finally, stick to straight bets. College football is amazingly volatile, and parlays as well as exotics can take their toll on your bankroll. Keep it simple, betting on point spreads, moneylines, and over/unders.
Analysis Tips
Choose a few conferences on which to focus and bet. Get to know them inside out.
There’s great value in mismatches. Especially those that have Power Five teams playing Group of Five or Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) teams.
NCAAF point spreads tend to be larger than those associated with the NFL. In 75% of the NCAAF point spreads, the outright winner covers.
Total odds can also appear to be high. They are often higher than NFL over/unders. With careful analysis, you’ll find that the over is often the winner. But do your analysis.
Focus on each team’s strengths. Unlike the NFL, which requires a pocket quarterback who can make the big play, many college football teams are option or run based. Don’t overlay NFL offensive standards on college football teams.
The offensive line is all important. Look for mismatches in this area.
College football special teams can be uneven, especially when it comes to placekicking. Pay attention to special teams.
Successful college coaches win games. Period.
Depth within conferences is often uneven. Depth wins games.
Defense is as important as offense.
The Week
Although a betting week in college football may at first glance appear to be just like the NFL, it’s quite different. The first difference is at the start of the season, most of the teams are playing out of conference. That can certainly make handicapping tricky. It’s true that some teams will play other conference clubs later in the season, but a majority of nonconference games are played during the first three to four weeks.
It’s helpful to think of the NCAAF season as three seasons. The first involves nonconference games, the second is conference games, and the third is bowl season where 84 of 130 FBS teams compete. The first and third part of the season are rife with mismatches that can be difficult to handicap. The point is with 780 regular-season contests and 43 postseason games, you must be diligent in your handicapping especially in deciding which games you’ll wager on.
Most college games are played on Saturday. However, as the season progresses, you’ll be able to bet on games just about any day of the week. Consider wagering on contests that are not being played on Saturday. The lack of choice on those days automatically gives sports bettors instant focus and decision-making becomes easier. Of course, you’ll want to wager on games scheduled on Saturday. How many games you bet on depends on your bankroll and if you’re also wagering on the NFL or another sport. Five to 10 games are possible if NCAAF is the only sport you’re betting at the time.
The Don’ts
Here are our 10 NCAAF betting strategy don’ts. And we mean “DON’T”:
There’s no NCAAF preseason. That means it takes time for sports bettors to warm up and get a clear view of the strengths and weaknesses of many of the teams. Don’t make too many wagers the first few weeks. Expand the number of bets you make in week three or four.
Parlays and props are very hard to hit. Stay away from them.
In either a moneyline or spread situation, be wary of projecting a winner based solely on team histories or recent performance.
High-risk odds should be bet in a limited manner.
During bowl season, don’t become a loose bettor, stay disciplined.
Don’t try to make up for losses or make a big score on the National Championship game. It’s just another game.
Don’t try to make your nut on futures. Treat them as novelty bets, wagering on them, if at all, sparingly.
Don’t get greedy, knowing when not to bet is more important than knowing when to bet.
When you don’t have enough information on a game, don’t bet it.
When handicapping, don’t use last week’s information. Stay current.
NCAAF Betting Strategy – Final Considerations
Our NCAAF betting strategy calls for players to be discerning, wagering on five-to-10 of the 60-to-65 games being played each week. If you’re going to do it right, it’ll take an hour or even two to seriously handicap each game. As we noted earlier, choose two to three conferences to focus on and become an expert on each one. Continually expand your knowledge base to other conferences and teams throughout the season so you’re ready for bowl season.
Atlantic Coast Conference - ACC
ACC Atlantic
ACC Coastal
Pac-12
Pac-12 North
Pac-12 South
Big 10 Football
Big 10 East
Big 10 West
SEC
SEC East
SEC West
Big 12
Independents
NCAAF Free Picks
