Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs Divisional Round Pick
Our Buffalo vs Kansas City prediction is for this second AFC Division game of the 2022 playoffs. It will kick off at 6:30 pm ET on Sunday, January 23. In this NFL contest, the Chiefs are favored by -1.0 (-109). The underdog Bills are listed at +1.0 (-102). The total is 54.0 with the over at -109 and under at -102. After reading our AFC Divisional preview, also see our NFC analysis and LA Rams vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers pick which will kick off at 3:00 pm ET.
The Buffalo Bills (11-6 Overall, 5-3 Away) finished first in the AFC East. To get to this game, they dismantled the New England Patriots last week in their Wildcard matchup. The Kansas City Chiefs (12-5 Overall, 7-2 Home) topped the AFC West. Last week in their Wildcard game, they hammered the Pittsburgh Steelers 42-21.
This AFC Divisional contest will be played at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO. The weather will be partly cloudy with winds from SSE at 6 mph and gusts at 8 mph. Temperatures will be in the mid-to-low 30s. The game will be on CBS.
Buffalo vs Kansas City Prediction – Keys
Yesterday in our NFL Divisional Round picks we were 0-4. Those picks were based on major statistical analysis. However, yesterday’s games and today’s feature teams that are very closely aligned. Little separates them. Thus, today’s analysis will be less dense than yesterday’s, focusing on a few key aspects that could be difference makers in both the AFC and NFC games. As a result, we’ll be crunching fewer numbers than we did yesterday.
Bills vs Chiefs Quarterbacks and Offense
Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes will be battling tonight. Allen has been consistent through the season, while, as the season has progressed, Mahomes has had to make major adjustments in his playing style.
Offense
Along with being an accurate passer, Allen is a huge rushing threat. He has over 700 rushing yards this season. Devin Singletary heads the rushing game, while Stefon Diggs (10 TDs) and Dawson Knox (9 TDs) are solid pass catchers and touchdown threats.
The Chiefs have an array of offensive weapons. Along with Mahomes, KC features the premium rushing tandem of Darrel Williams (6 TDs) and Clyde Edwards-Helaire (4 TDs). Wideout Tyreek Hill (9 TDs) and tight end Travis Kelce (9 TDs) headline what is a fine receiving unit.
Defense
The difference in this game could be defense. The Bills have a major edge in sacks and TFL. Plus, they’ve made more picks and defended substantially more passes. Both teams are proficient in forcing and recovering fumbles. Each defense has scored three times on turnovers.
Buffalo vs Kansas City Prediction - Spread & Totals
In this game, we like the Bills. Their defense is deeper and stingier. Plus, on offense, Allen is a dual threat. We’re going with Buffalo at +1.0 (-102). Expect a score of approximately 40-27 in favor of Buffalo. Bet over 54.0 (-109).
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Summary – Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs Divisional Pick:
Point Spread Pick – Buffalo Bills at +1.0 (-102)
Totals Pick - Over 54.0 (-109)
