MLB

MLB Betting Strategy

A solid MLB betting strategy is essential to success, as baseball offers thousands of wagering opportunities spread out over the course of seven months. We stress that bettors need to be discerning and disciplined, especially because for many months baseball is the only game in town. Once the Stanley Cups and NBA playoffs are finished, baseball is king in the U.S. The NBA finishes up by mid-June and NHL by early July. For about two months, it’s all about baseball. Then in late-August and mid-September, when NCAA football and the NFL start, baseball shares the spotlight again. Football is followed quickly by the NHL, NBA, and college basketball. 

The Baseball Season 

The MLB regular season consists of 2,430 games. Each of the MLB's 32 teams plays 162 games with each team averaging 6.07 games per week. That’s a total of about 91 games per week. In straight betting alone, players have the chance to make over 180 wagers per week. The playoffs, which start in early October, include two five-game series and three seven-game series along with the wildcard games. The spring training leagues, which are the Grapefruit and Cactus, also offer odds. We suggest you not wager on spring training. Instead, use that time as the players and coaches do, to get ready for the regular season. 

MLB Betting Strategy – Don’t Strike Out

With such a long season and so many opportunities, sports bettors need to prep for the long run. Our MLB betting strategy includes playing primarily runline and over/under bets. These odds tend to lend themselves to analysis that focuses on pitching matchups. Always start your evaluation of each game by assessing the starting pitchers. Also consider the bullpen, especially the setup man and closer. Of course, offense can’t be disregarded. But in the majors solid pitching usually wins out over premium hitting.  As the season progresses, minor league talent as well as player trades can be factors that affect outcomes. 

One of the most important things to remember about the baseball season is it is exceptionally long and grueling. Teams can start out strong, fade, and then enjoy a resurgence. The opposite can also happen. Also, some teams will look great for a while and then fall off the map, while others will never be able to gain a foothold. Along with covering a long span of time, MLB’s 162-game regular season is almost double that of either the NHL or NBA seasons. 

Baseball Analysis Tips 

When betting on Major League Baseball, carefully consider our insights below:

• It’s about pitching.

• Find pitchers to bet on and others to bet against.

• If a team does not have a real closer, they can be a bad bet.

• Three- and four-game series are hard to sweep.

• Teams play each of their divisional opponents 19 times in the season for a total of 78 games each. Trends will develop. Learn to recognize them.

• When betting interleague play, consider that in AL parks, the DH is active and in NL venues, it’s not. 

• Start the season out slowly. Although spring training and past performance will offer some valuable information, the first six weeks will give you a lot more.

• Teams with weak pitching and poor hitting can be valuable. That is, if you bet against them. 

• The playoffs are a whole other animal. Before betting on a game in a postseason series, consider how the entire series will play out. Pay close attention to projected starters and how they match up. 

• Ballparks can help certain teams and hurt others. 

MLB Betting. – The Week 

In our MLB betting strategy, we find that meticulous analysis and methodical wagering are essential if you want to see your bankroll expand over the length of the season. That means by betting one-to-three games per day, around 15-to-20 per week, you should have the time needed to carefully handicap each game. If you find that many games overwhelming, then focus on fewer, giving yourself adequate time to analyze each. 

Although we favor runline and total bets, there are times when you’ll want to wager the moneyline. Sometimes the runline is simply too tight and the over/under is too close. If you find you aren’t comfortable with any of the lines, then scrap the game and look for another or don’t bet on that day. 

• The Don’ts 

• We’ve developed some important precautions regarding baseball betting. Please read and seriously consider them:
  
  Don’t underestimate the fact that there is no DH in the NL. It does affect scoring and ERA, as well as the bullpen.

• Don’t forget that even great teams run into losing streaks.

• Don’t discount motivation, as some teams have better reasons to win than others. 

• Momentum occurs within a game. It does not flow from one game to another. Don’t bet on today’s game based on the prior day’s performance. 

• Don’t rely purely on hunches. Stats are your best friend. 

• Don’t look for the odd times a struggling team will win, look for the predictable times when a good team will falter.

• Don’t underrate pitchers who are workhorses. They win games, or, at the very least, give their team a fighting chance to win. 

• Don’t forget that you can find deals and value by betting on games that are not premium matchups. 

• Don’t forget the over/under, as it often offers solid betting opportunities. 

• If you’re on a losing streak, don’t up the ante. Layback and work at finding your balance again. 

MLB Betting Strategy – Final Thoughts

As noted, baseball season provides players with thousands of quality opportunities. Our MLB betting strategy calls for a steady approach that focuses first on all aspects of pitching, and then on offense. Because the season is so long and teams play three-to-four game series with divisional opponents facing each other 19 times, sports bettors can find matchups that they can exploit throughout the season. 

However, it is important that you don’t wager using yesterday’s facts and lineups. Monitor teams, as injuries, trades, and movement between the majors and minors can alter a club’s chances of winning or losing. Finally, consider non-marquee matchups, as these can provide you with value, as well as possible arbitrage opportunities. When the regular season ends, there are still over 30 postseason games on which to bet. For the discerning sports bettor who utilizes a sound MLB betting strategy, there are plenty of chances to turn value into profit.

 MLB Picks