Three Weekly Picks - North Carolina vs Pittsburgh Plus Two More
This week we feature our North Carolina vs Pittsburgh pick as the first of three NCAAF predictions. That game will be played on Thursday, November 11, 2021 at 7:30 pm ET. Our second weekly pick offers two AAC teams, as Cincinnati visits USF. They meet on Friday, November 12 at 6:00 pm ET. Finally, our third and final best college football pick for this week offers Purdue vs Ohio State. That Big Ten contest will be played Saturday, November 13 at 3:30 pm ET.
North Carolina vs Pittsburgh Pick (-6.5)
The North Carolina Tar Heels (5-4 Overall, 3-3 ACC) are fourth in the ACC Coastal. The Tar Heels are 0-2 away. The #23 Pittsburgh Panthers (7-2 Overall, 4-1 ACC), who are first in the Coastal Division are 3-2 at home. In terms of basic stats, Pitt tops UNC in points per game (45.0-38.9), and they’re stingier in points allowed (22.7-33.4). They’re also generating 55 more on offense while allowing 75 fewer defensive yards.
Pittsburgh has a major advantage on defense in terms of protecting against the pass. Our North Carolina vs Pittsburgh pick notes that the Panthers come to this game with 31 sacks, nine picks, and three pick sixes. Tar Heel quarterback Sam Howell has been sacked 33 times. Howell’s thrown 20 TD passes and seven INTs. He is a solid runner, averaging 5.1 YPA and scoring eight times. On the other hand, North Carolina has 17 sacks and nine INTs. Pitt QB Kenny Pickett has been sacked just 18 times and has tossed only three picks. He’s thrown 29 TD passes and rushed for four more scores. When all is said and done, we like the Pittsburgh Panthers in this one at -6.5.
North Carolina vs #23 Pittsburgh - Panthers at -6.5 (-110)
Thursday, November 11, 2021 at 7:30 pm ET.
#6 Cincinnati vs USF Prediction (-23.5)
After our North Carolina vs Pittsburgh pick, we have the AAC’s second-place team, the undefeated Cincinnati Bearcats (9-0 Overall, 5-0 AAC), visitng the conference’s ninth-place team, the USF Bulls (2-7 Overall, 1-4 AAC). The Bulls are 2-3 at home. The skinny on this game has to do with trends. Although the Bearcats destroyed their first two AAC opponents, Temple (52-3) and UCF (56-21), their three latest wins were by an average of 11.33 points. Plus, Cincinnati’s biggest margin of victory in that time was 19 points against Navy.
Conversely, in the conference, the Bulls have lost by 24 or more points once. That was their first AAC contest where SMU beat them by 24 points, 41-17. Otherwise, their biggest losses were by 12 to first-place Houston and 15 to fifth-place ECU. It’s true that SMU gives up a lot of points. However East Carolina’s defense is almost as stingy as Cincinnati’s, (97 PA to 76 PA). Note, South Florida’s average losing margin in their last three AAC contests is 9.66 points. On the other hand, the Bearcats are allowing opponents just 14.9 PPG while the Bulls are giving up 34.3 PPG. However, USF can score, as they’ve been good for 24.8 points per game. Cincy is averaging a hefty 38.6 PPG. USF scored 14 against ECU while Cincinnati scored 31 against Tulane. This score could be similar. We’re taking South Florida at +23.5.
#6 Cincinnati vs USF - Bulls at +23.5
Friday, November 12 at 6:00 pm ET.
#19 Purdue vs #4 Ohio State Pick (-21.0)
Here we are with two nationally-ranked Big Ten teams squaring off late Saturday afternoon. The #19 Purdue Boilermakers (6-3 Overall, 4-2 Big Ten) are tied with three other teams for first in the West. They’ve won their last two games and are 3-1 away. In the East, the #4 Ohio State Buckeyes (8-1 Overall, 6-0 Big Ten) top the division. They are 4-1 at home and have established a seven-game winning streak.
In the Big Ten, the Boilermakers have been giant killers, knocking off #2 Iowa 24-7 and, last week, #3 Michigan State 40-29. Their largest losing margin was 17 versus Wisconsin. Purdue’s early-season loss to Notre Dame was by 14 points. OSU destroyed three Big Ten opponents, Rutgers, Maryland, and Indiana. However, their average margin of victory over Minnesota, #20 Penn State, and Nebraska was 10.67 points. OSU’s last two games were versus the Nittany Lions and Cornhuskers. It’s important to note that both Purdue and Ohio State possess very tight defenses with the Boilermakers allowing 18.4 PPG and Buckeyes 19.0. OSU is averaging 20 more PPG on offense than Purdue. However, in their last two wins, Ohio State has averaged 29.5 PPG and not 44.9. This looks like a game that will end with a 10-point differential. Take Purdue at +21.0.
#19 Purdue vs #2 Ohio State - Boilermakers at +21.0 (-110)
Saturday, November 13 at 3:30 pm ET
North Carolina vs Pittsburgh Pick, Plus
In offering our North Carolina vs Pittsburgh pick and the two other games, we’re looking at trends late in the season, which are often quite different than those established early on. In the end with the spread, we like Pitt, USF, and Purdue.
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