New England vs Atlanta Week 11 Early Pick
Early odds for our New England vs Atlanta prediction are soft. This Thursday Night football game will be played November 18, 2021, with kickoff at 8:20 pm ET. Bovada, amongst other books, has the New England Patriots at -4.0 (-110). Simultaneously, the Atlanta Falcons are at +4.0 (-110). The 5-4 Patriots have won their last three games and are 4-1 for their last five. The Atlanta Falcons are 3-2 over their last five. They’re coming off a big 27-25 victory over New Orleans. New England is 4-0 on the road. Conversely, the Falcons are 1-3 at home.
The game will be played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia. The weather won’t be a factor, as the stadium has a retractable roof. You can watch the New England vs Atlanta contest on FOX and NFL Network.
Patriots vs Falcons Projection – Key Stats
Statistically, the major advantage that New England has is on defense. The Pats are holding opponents to 18.9 PPG. On the other hand, the Atlanta defense is giving up 27.5 PPG. Additionally, on offense, New England has an edge in points per game (25.6-21.9). Additionally, on defense, the Pats are better at stopping the run, and on offense, their ground game has a statistical edge.
Our New England vs Atlanta prediction notes that when it comes to specific defensive stats, the Patriots are also better than the Falcons. New England tops Atlanta in sacks (19-11), TFL (35-29), PD (46-44), and INTs (13-3). Plus, the Pats have two pick sixes. Atlanta tops the Patriots in FF (7-5) and FR (4-3). Overall, on defense, New England is favored and very dangerous.
New England vs Atlanta Prediction – Players
We find with our New England vs Atlanta pick there’s no real edge at quarterback. Veteran Matt Ryan and rookie Mac Jones are very close in every statistical passing category. Neither is a huge threat to run. The major difference between the two signal callers is NFL experience. Ryan has been in the league 13 years. This is Jones’ tenth NFL game. Ryan has one weapon that the Patriots don’t possess. That is a dual-threat running back. Cordarrelle Patterson is the team’s top rusher who’s also second in receiving. Patterson has five TD catches as well as two rushing scores.
However, the Patriots feature a deeper receiving corps. Jones has spread his passes amongst six receivers, all of whom has 20 or more catches and five of which have one or more touchdown catches. Ryan’s preferred pass catchers total three. Each of those three has between 31 and 39 receptions. Note, although Falcon Olamide Zaccheaus has just 13 receptions, three have gone for scores. Watchout for him.
Finally, on defense, the Patriots have a formidable group that includes four standouts. Safety Adrian Phillips has three picks, three PD, and one FF, while cornerback J.C. Jackson has recorded five interceptions and 12 passes defended. Both Phillips and Jackson have nabbed a pick-six. Linebacker Matthew Judon has made nine sacks, recorded 10 TFL, and recovered one fumble. Finally, safety Kyle Dugger leads the team with 42 solo tackles and 56 total tackles. He also has two picks and two PD.
Our New England vs Atlanta Prediction
This is an early pick due to what we consider soft odds. Later, the odds on this game could go either way, but we expect the spread will expand and not contract. Thus, our New England vs Atlanta prediction is the Patriots at -4.0. Our assessment is the spread should be around -7.0. We’ve just added another early soft odds pick as Las Vegas visits Dallas in Week 12.
Summary – New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons Pick:
Point Spread Pick – New England Patriots at -4.0 (-110)
