Three NFL Picks - Week 10
Our three Week 10 NFL picks include our Cleveland vs New England prediction, Atlanta vs Dallas projection, and Seattle at Green Bay spread pick. The first two contests kick off at 1 pm ET, while the Seahawks play the Packers at 4:25 pm ET.
Cleveland vs New England Prediction (-2.5)
The Patriots (5-4) are at home where they are 1-4. They’ve won three straight games, which includes a 27-24 victory over the Chargers a few weeks ago and a 24-6 thumping of the Panthers last week. The Browns (5-4), who are 2-2 on the road, are coming off a big 41-16 win against the Bengals. Both teams are averaging about 25 PPG, while the Cleveland defense is allowing 21.8 PPG and New England is giving up 18.9 PPG. The Browns’ rush attack is averaging 160.2 YPG. On the other hand, the Pats are posting 106.8 YPG.
Both veteran QB Baker Mayfield and rookie Mac Jones are having solid seasons. Mayfield is more vulnerable to the sack, while Jones is more likely to toss a pick. Both rush attacks are without their primary running backs, although the New England substitutes are performing better than those of the Browns. Our Cleveland vs New England prediction also notes that the Patriots bring a deeper receiving corps to the field and a tougher pass defense. On D, Cleveland tops the Pats in sacks.
Although New England has not performed well at home, of their four home losses, one was in OT and two others were by an average of 1.5 points. We like the spread and are going with the Pats.
Prediction - New England -2.5 (-110)
Atlanta vs Dallas Projection (-8.0)
The Atlanta Falcons (4-4) are 3-1 away, while the Dallas Cowboys (6-2) are 3-1 at home. Dallas is outpacing Atlanta in points per game (30.1-21.9) and also allowing opponents fewer points per game (24.0-27.5). The Cowboys’ offense is good for close to 100 more yards per game than that of the Falcons. They have both a very productive pass and rush attack. On the other hand, Atlanta relies heavily on their air game.
Like our Cleveland vs New England prediction, the result of this game will have a lot to do with quarterback performance. Matt Ryan is still a solid force in the NFL who can get the job done. Simultaneously, this season Dak Prescott has been on this game. Both are enjoying productive seasons and each QB has a deep corps of receivers. Atlanta’s Cordarrelle Patterson is a dual-threat running back. For Dallas, Ezekiel Elliot, also a dual threat, has huge touchdown potential. On defense, the Cowboy secondary is a dominant force. Thus far this season, they’ve recorded three pick sixes.
Dallas is coming off a humiliating 30-16 loss to Denver, while Atlanta took down New Orleans 27-25 in their last game. We don’t like the Cowboys at -8.0. We even like them less at -9.5, which you’ll find at some books. We’re going with Atlanta at the bargain rate of -9.5.
Prediction - Atlanta +9.5 (-125)
Seattle at Green Bay Spread Pick (-3.0)
The last of our three Week 10 NFL picks notes that the Seahawks (3-5 Overall, 2-2 Away) welcome back QB Russell Wilson, who last played and suffered a finger injury on October 7. At the same time, Green Bay (7-2 Overall, 3-0 Home) sees QB Aaron Rodgers return after a one-week hiatus due to testing positive for COVID-19. In terms of basic stats, including points per game, points allowed, and offensive yards, these teams are equal. However, the Packer D is allowing about 75 fewer yards per game than Seattle’s.
Last week, Seattle won its first game in four tries by pounding Jacksonville 31-7. Also last week, Green Bay suffered their first loss in seven games, as the Rodgers-less Packers went down in defeat 13-7 to Kansas City. Prior to his injury, Wilson was putting up solid numbers completing 72 percent of his passes while tossing 10 TD passes and one interception. His primary targets are DK Metcalf (8 TDs) and Tyler Lockett (3 TDs). For the Packers, Rodgers is having a fine season, tossing 17 TD passes and three picks while completing 67.1 percent of his tosses. His receiving unit is deep and includes five players with two or more TD catches. Running back A.J. Dillon is a dual threat.
We find that on defense the Packer secondary is very dangerous. Plus, the D comes to this game with seven more sacks than today’s competitor. We think that could be the difference in this game. However, Green Bay has had issues with their field goal unit and at -3.0 that can be a game breaker. Still, we think the Packers come back today. Take them at -3.0 (-110)
Prediction - Green Bay -3.0 (-110)
Three Week 10 NFL Picks
Cleveland vs New England Prediction (-2.5)
Atlanta vs Dallas Projection (-8.0)
Seattle at Green Bay Spread Pick (-3.0)
In developing our Week 10 NFL picks and specifically our Cleveland vs New England prediction, the issue of veteran versus rookie quarterback seemed less important than it had been earlier in the season. Overall, Mac Jones has performed well in his first season with the Pats, displaying maturity and good decision-making. Our Atlanta vs Dallas prediction finds that the Cowboys should win but won’t cover. If you can’t get Atlanta at -9.5 and have to take them at -8.0, we’d do so. Finally, our Seattle at Green Bay spread pick sees two quarterbacks return with one having missed a month of games and the other one contest. We like the latter, Rodgers and the Pack. Defense will be huge in this game.
Summary – Three Week 10 NFL Picks:
Point Spread Pick – New England Patriots (-2.5)
Point Spread Pick – Atlanta Falcons (+9.5 or +8.0)
Point Spread Pick – Green Bay Packers (-3.0)
