Indianapolis Colts vs Buffalo Bills Week 11 Pick
In our Indianapolis vs Buffalo prediction for Sunday, November 21, 2021, sports bettors have some choices when wagering on the Bills. The Buffalo Bills (6-3 Overall, 3-1 Home) are at either -7.0 (-110) or -7.5 (+110). If you’re going with the visiting Indianapolis Colts (5-5 Overall, 2-2 Away), your best deal is +7.5 (-110). The Bills top the AFC East by .031 percentage points. New England is on their heels. The Colts are second in the AFC South. They’re three games behind the Tennessee Titans and are looking for a Wild Card berth.
This 1:00 pm ET NFL game will be played at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY. The weather at game time will be cloudy with rain likely sometime in the second half. The temperature at 1:00 pm ET will be around 49 degrees (feels like 44) and falling into the mid-40s (feels like 40) during the game. Winds will be from the south at around 10 mph. This AFC contest will be carried on CBS.
Indianapolis Colts vs Buffalo Bills Pick – Key Stats
When it comes to points per game, the Bills are better than the Colts on both sides of the ball. Buffalo is averaging 31.1 PPG, while Indy is posting 26.8 PPG. On defense, the Bills are allowing just 15.0 PPG. The Colt D is giving up 23.0. Home team Buffalo has a combined PF/PA averaged of +12.3 over the Colts.
Colts at Bills - Yardage
On offense, the Bills are churning out 50 more YPG than Indianapolis in passing. However, the Colts have a minor five-yard advantage on the ground. Defensively, Buffalo is giving up 92 fewer yards than their visitors. Comparatively, the Bills are better in passing yards 201.2-to-263.3 and in rushing yards 83.9-to-113.7.
Indianapolis vs Buffalo Prediction - Defensive Details
Additionally, Buffalo is better than Indy in interceptions (15-10), passess defended (50-38), and tackles for a loss (45-39). The Bills also have one pick six, while the Colts have none. Conversely, Indy is a bit better in sacks (22-19), FF (11-10) and FR (11-9). The Colts have run one fumble recovery back for a score and both teams have blocked one kick.
Edge: Overall, the Bills are superior to the Colts in stats. However, Indianapolis is dangerous in creating turnovers. Still, Buffalo has a big edge in the secondary and against the rush.
Indianapolis vs Buffalo Prediction – Players
For some perspective, the Colts come into this game winning four of their last five and with two straight victories, beating the Jets (45-30) and the Jaguars (23-17). Their one loss was to the Titans in overtime 34-31. The Bills, who are 3-2 for their past five, also last played the Jets and Jags. They beat NYJ last week 45-17. However, the prior week, Buffalo lost to Jacksonville 9-6. Additionally, they also lost to the Titans by the same score as Indy (34-31). Over the course of those five games, Buffalo had a big 36-20 victory over the Chiefs.
Offense
It’s interesting to note that neither Carson Wentz nor Josh Allen threw a TD pass against the Jags. However, overall, Wentz has been playing better over the past five games than he did in his initial five, tossing 10 of his 17 TD passes and being sacked just four of his total 18 times. For the Colts, Wentz has throw a total of three picks this season with two of those coming against Tennessee. He’s completing 63.5 percent of his passes. The Indy QB has a slew of guys to toss to, including wideouts Michael Pittman Jr. (5 TDs) and Zach Pascal, (4 TDs), tight ends Mo Alie-Cox (3 TDs) and Jack Doyle (2 TDs), and dual-threat running backs Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines. Taylor has rushed for 937 yards, averaging 5.8 YPA while scoring nine touchdowns.
For the Bills, quarterback Josh Allen is completing 66.3 percent of his passes. He has thrown 19 TDs and six INTs. Four of those picks have occured in the last four games. Also, Allen has been sacked 14 times with nine of those also coming in the past four games. He has four primary targets, wideouts Stefon Diggs (4 TDs), Emmanuel Sanders (4 TDs), and Cole Beasley (1 TD) and tight end Dawson Knox (5 TDs). RBs Devin Singletary (80 ATT, 398 YDs, 5.0 AVG, 2 TDs) and Zach Moss (72 ATT, 260 YDs, 3.6 AVG, 4 TDs) anchor what is a low-output ground game. Allen has carried the ball 59 times, averaging 5.5 YPA and scoring three TDs.
Edge: Colts on the ground and Bills in the air. Bills have high-quality receivers, while Colts receiving group is deep and versatile. Allen is a rush threat. Bills O-line has been an issue as of late.
Defense
Top performers on defense for the Colts include LBs Bobby Okereke (1 SCK, 2 TFL, 3 PD, 1 INT) and Darius Leonard (3 TFL, 5 PD, 2 INTs, 4 FF, 2 FR), DE DeForest Buckner (4.5 SCKs, 6 TFL, 2 PD), and corner Kenny Moore II (1 SCK, 4 TFL, 8 PD, 3 INTs). Okereke tops the team in tackles with 86, while Leonard (73), Moore (68), and Buckner (45) are two, three, and four.
The Bills’ secondary is deep with cornerbacks Taron Johnson (1 SCK, 1 TFL, 6 PD, 1 INT, 1 FF), Tre'Davious White (0.5 SCK, 1 TFL, 5 PD, 1 INT, 1 FF, 1 FR), and Levi Wallace (8 PD, 2 INT, 1 FR) and safeties Jordan Poyer (1 SCK, 4 TFL, 7 PD, 4 INT) and Micah Hyde (1 SCK, 3 TFL, 7 PD, 3 INT, 1 TD, 1 FF, 1 FR ) providing premium coverage. LB Tremaine Edmunds, who has two passes defended and one pick, tops the Bills with 55 tackles.
Edge: Colts bring better pressure on the passer. However, Buffalo’s secondary is superior.
Our Indianapolis vs Buffalo Prediction
Indianapolis comes to this game running on high. The last five weeks, they’ve been very competitive. On the other hand, over that same period, Buffalo has been inconsistent. Still, the Bills’ secondary is a game-changer, and, on the other side of the ball, we expect Allen will have adequate protection today. With that in mind, our Indianapolis vs Buffalo prediction is the Bills at -7.0.
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Summary – Indianapolis Colts vs Buffalo Bills Pick:
Point Spread Pick – Buffalo Bills at -7.0 (-110
