OVER/UNDER ODDS

Over/Under Odds and Betting

The Over/under bet is common in every sport. The three major sports bets you can make include the over/under, which is also known as a total bet, the point spread and moneyline. All three are based on the outcome of the game, but this one isn’t concerned with who will win, but, rather, how each team will perform and how much scoring there will be by both teams. 

Basics – Over/Under

Simply put, with this wager you’re betting on whether the total will go over or under a specified number. Although this is not always the case, the total is often expressed using a half-point value. As an example, the over/under on an NFL game might be 45.5 rather than 45 or 46. If the total is expressed as a fraction rather than an integer, it negates the possibility of a push.

Totals and the Push

As it is with the spread, if an over/under bet is expressed as an integer, there’s the possibility that there will be no bet and all wagers will be returned. As an example, if the over/under for an NFL game is 45 and one team scores 24 points and the other 21, the total would be 45. The result is a push with all wagers being returned to the bettors.

The problem with this for the bookie is they make nothing on that particular bet, as they cannot collect vig on a push. Why, then, would a sportsbook choose to list the total as an integer and not a fraction? One reason is in the analysis of the game and development of the odds, mathematically, it may just come out that way.

Of course, that doesn’t mean that they can’t adjust the odds in one direction or the other. Books can and sometimes do. However, if they want more action, and they determine that not listing the over/under bet as a fraction will help generate that action, then why not list it as an integer? After all, the chances of that number being the total is rare. In the last 13 years, the average total has been 43. However, during that stretch of time in each individual season, the average total has always been expressed as a fraction.

Over/Under Bet – Tips

Here are two very important numbers. In the past 20 years, games that totaled 41 or fewer points went under 91.8% (1893-170-36). During the same stretch of time, all matchups where 42 or more points were scored went over at a rate of 86.2% (2037-326-50). Thus, accurate point total calculation on your part is essential.

  • Is either the over or under favored? If one is, why is it? It may be because it’s more likely in a certain direction.

  • Too many sports bettors wager on totals without taking time to perform a thorough analysis. Look at all factors.  

  • Past performance, especially over numerous years, is often weighed too heavily by bettors. Sports betting is about analyzing the here and now. 

  • Perhaps the most important matchups when it comes to the over/under bet is each team’s offense versus the other team’s defense.