MONEYLINE
Moneyline Odds and Betting
When you make a moneyline bet, you’re wagering on which team will win outright. This is different from a point spread bet where underdogs are given points and favorites have points taken away to even the payout odds. A moneyline bet can pay off big if you take the underdog and they win, or if you wager a large amount on the favorite, such as five times the minimum, and they win. In this section, we’ll examine both scenarios and will also offer various tips regarding moneylines.
One important note – in our examples, we’ll be discussing wagering $100 or more. Sportsbooks minimums vary with most minimums ranging from $0.50-to-$2.00. Thus, if a team is +200 and you bet $2.00 and win, you’ll make $4.00 plus you’ll receive your original wager back for a total return of $6.00. At the same time, if you bet $2.00 on a team at -200, you’ll win $1.00, and your $2.00 wager will be returned for a total of $3.00
Moneyline Bet – Underdog
If in utilizing the moneyline you are going to wager on the dog, your biggest profit will come when you bet on a team that is a huge underdog (+500 or higher). Still, even with a team that’s a moderate underdog (+200 to +475), you can still realize a solid payout. However, you should never bet on a team that’s moderately or heavily unfavored just because it’ll offer a major profit if you’re right.
Still, there are plenty of upsets in the sporting world. Afterall, teams aren’t declared winners until the game is over. When is the best time to take the moneyline on an underdog? There are three different scenarios that we like when wagering on the team that is not favored.
When the favorite has sustained some major injuries, has been underperforming, or is clearly vulnerable due to some other factor such as inclement weather, fatigue due to a long road trip or an extended string of consecutive games, player or coach shakeups, etc.
When the underdog has recently been a consistent dark horse or spoiler.
When the dog has recently performed well against a team that’s very similar to the one they’re about to play.
Moneyline Wager – Favorite
As noted, with a moneyline bet on the favorite, you’ll need to risk more to win less. The more a team is favored, the more you’ll have to risk to win some cash. As an example, if the favorite is a slight to moderate favorite at -200, you’ll be betting $200 to collect a $100 profit. Yet, according to the line, a team at -200 is less favored to win the game than a team at -600. At the same time, even though a club at -600 or higher is a bigger favorite than one at -200, there are no guarantees that they will win. Plus, your profit compared to the amount you risk is miniscule.
However, there are times when making a moneyline bet on the favorite is smart. Here are three scenarios that you can exploit when utilizing monelyline odds.
Consider making a bet when the moneyline is -200 or lower. The difference between risk and profit is moderate ($150-to-$200 risked to win $100), and yet, if your analysis deems that the favorite is highly likely to win, this is a solid wager. In fact, instead of taking odds on a team at -600, you could triple up on the team at -200, betting $600 and, at the same time, tripling your profit at $300.
If a team listed at anywhere from -350 to -600 looks solid on the win but not solid enough to beat the spread, and you have the cash, bet two to four times the line to maximize profit. At -400, a $1,200 wager yields a $300 profit.
When wagering on the favorite look for value. Bookmakers create lines designed to give them an edge, but which must also attract sports bettors. This can lead to real deals. Instead of a top team being listed at -400, they might be offered at -325. That’s good value for the bettor.
Betting Tips - Moneyline
First and foremost, when betting never simply rely on the odds. Do your homework. Prior to making any moneyline bet or spread wager, research the game, teams, and sport, and perform an analysis. Don’t base your bets on feelings, base them on facts and stats.
Monitor news regarding upcoming games. An ill or injured player, bad weather, internal strife, and other situations can influence the outcome of a game
Compare moneyline odds to point spread odds to determine which is the better wager
Review odds when they are first posted, as these numbers are often soft and will firm up later as game time approaches. The initial posting of odds offen presents sports bettors with solid deals.
Monitor odds in the morning, afternoon, and evening, as they often change.
In order to make a smart bet, you must understand the sport and teams thoroughly.
Along with understanding the odds, your risk, and possible profit and the sport and teams, make sure that you perform due diligence on the game. In your analysis, utilize team statistics, injury reports, player stats, team information, matchups, etc.
When making a moneyline bet, be realistic. Wagering $1,500 on a team that’s +500 can result in a great payout ($7,500). It can also end up taking a chunk out of your bankroll. Also, remember that betting on the favorite can result in you having to risk a lot to win very little.
In the end, if you are uncomfortable making the bet, look for another game to place your moneyline bet on, or if it’s attractive, go with the spread.