UTSA Roadrunners vs San Diego State Aztecs 2021 Frisco Bowl

Our UTSA vs San Diego State prediction for the 2021 Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl features teams from C-USA and the Mountain West Conference. The UTSA Roadrunners (12-1) finished first in the C-USA West. During the season, they lost one game. That was to third-place North Texas by a score of 45-23. The Roadrunners, who are 24th in the AP Top 25, beat Western Kentucky 49-41 for the conference championship. The San Diego State Aztecs (12-2) finished first in the MWC West. During the season, they lost one game, as the Fresno State Bulldogs took them down 30-20. The Aztecs met Utah State for the conference title, losing 13-46. In the College Football Playoff rankings, SDSU is 24th.

Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl Spread and Totals Odds

The Underdog Roadrunners are +3.0 (-110). The favorite San Diego State Aztecs are at -2.5 (-117). The over/under is a solid 49.0 (-110). The 2021 Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl will be played at Toyota Stadium on Tuesday, December 21 in Frisco, TX with kickoff at 7:30 pm ET. The game will be broadcast on ESPN. The game time weather report is for clear skies with temperatures in the low 40s. Winds will be 6 mph from the SSE with gusts to 12 mph. There’s a zero percent chance of precipitation.

Roadrunners vs Aztecs Pick - Stats

The Roadrunners are scoring 37.8 PPG, which is 11 points better than SDSU’s 26.6 PPG. On the other hand, the Aztecs are a bit more stingier on defense (19.5-23.6 PPG). In combined PF/PA, UTSA has a seven-point advantage. They are also better in total offensive yards (442.9-331.5), yards passing (254.3-155.2), and rushing (188.6-176.3).

On the other hand, defensively, the Aztecs are tighter, allowing opponents 319.6 while the Roadrunners are giving up 363.8. SDSU holds a major advantage in rushing defense (77.6-111.5), while they are a bit better than UTSA versus the pass (242.0-252.2). Statistically, the Aztecs top the Roadrunners in sacks (36-32), picks (16-12), and passes defended (55-41). UTSA is better in forced fumbles (10-5) and fumbles recovered (14-5).

UTSA vs San Diego State Prediction - Key Players

The Roadrunners feature Frank Harris (2,906 YDs, 66.6 COMP%, 25 TDs, 5 INTs, 13 SCKs) at QB. He has three solid wideouts, Zakhari Franklin, Joshua Cephus, and De'Corian Clark, to toss to. Franklin leads the group with 73 catches, 938 yards, and 11 TDs. Cephus and Clark have combined for 115 receptions, 1,476 receiving yards, and 12 TDs. The rushing unit is deep and includes top performer Sincere McCormick (298 ATT, 1,479 YDs, 5.0 AVG, 15 TDs). On D, linebacker Clarence Hicks brings 10 sacks, as well as two PD and one INT, to this game. Safety Antonio Parks (4 PD, 2 INTs) and corner Corey Mayfield Jr. (3 PD, 2 INTs) lead a tenacious secondary.

Running backs Greg Bell (220 ATT, 999 YDs, 4.5 AVG, 8 TDs) and Chance Bell (66 ATT, 312 YDs, 4.7 AVG, 4 TDs) lead the ground game. Two QBs, Lucas Johnson (1,091 YDs, 61.0 COMP%, 9 TDs, 4 INTs, 12 SCKs) Jordon Brookshire (830 YDs, 50.8 COMP%, 3 TDs, 1 INT, 10 SCKs), could see action. The receiving group is thin. Jesse Matthews (47 REC, 482 YDs, 10.3 AVG, 7 TDs) is the team’s top pass catcher. On defense, lineman Cameron Thomas (10.5 SCKs) and linebacker Seyddrick Lakalaka (7.5 SCKs) bring plenty of pressure on quarterbacks. The secondary is solid, as safeties Patrick McMorris (8 PD, 4 INTs) and Trenton Thompson (13 PD, 3 INTs)anchor the group.

UTSA vs San Diego State Prediction

In our UTSA vs San Diego State prediction, we find that the Roadrunners are better on offense. On the other hand, the Aztecs have a much deeper defense. The major question is will SDSU’s defense be able to control and limit UTSA’s offense for the entire game? We think eventually SDSU’s D will break down. At the same time, the Aztec offense is limited, and we find that the sound Roadrunner defense will be able to handle it. With those considerations in mind, we’re taking UTSA at +3.0 (-110). We’re projecting UTSA will score 31 points and SDSU 26. Take the over at 49.0 (-110)

As a quick note, Sports Betting Smarts is predicting all of this season’s 41 college football bowls. In the first week, we went 12-4 with an 8-2 mark on Saturday. Also for December 21, we have our Famous Idaho Potato Bowl pick featuring Kent State and Wyoming.

2021 Frisco Bowl - UTSA vs San Diego State Summary

Spread - UTSA at +3.0 (-110)

Over/Under - Over 49.0 (-110)