SMU Mustangs vs Virginia Cavaliers 2021 Fenway Bowl

Note: Due to COVID-19, the Fenway Bowl has been canceled. This was our take on that game.

Our SMU vs Virginia prediction for the 2021 Wasabi Fenway Bowl is our first of four picks for Wednesday, December 29. The SMU Mustangs (8-4) finished the season at 4-4 in the AAC. That record was good enough for sixth place in the conference. The Mustangs lost their last two games of the season and went 1-4 for their final five. The Virginia Cavaliers (6-6) ended their season at 4-4 and in a two-way tie with Virginia Tech for third in the ACC Coastal. They come to this bowl game having lost their last four games.

Wasabi Fenway Bowl Spread and Totals Odds

In this game, SMU is the underdog at +2.5 (-105), while favored Virginia is -2.5 (-115). The total is at 71.0 with the over being -105 and under -115. The 2021 Wasabi Fenway Bowl will be played at Fenway Park in Boston, MA with kickoff at 11:00 am ET. The weather forecast is for cloudy skies with temperatures in the mid-30s. There’s a zero percent chance of precipitation. The game will be broadcast on ESPN.

Mustangs vs Cavaliers Pick - Stats

These two teams are close in both points scored and points allowed. SMU is averaging 38.4 PPG and Virginia is at 34.6. On defense, the Mustangs are giving up 28.4 PPG, while the Cavs are allowing 31.8. Although close, SMU comes to this game with a PF/PA advantage of +7.2. In developing our SMU vs Virginia prediction, we note that Virginia is averaging 50 more YPG on offense than SMU, as they are totalling 515.8 YPG with 392.6 in the air. On offense, the Mustangs are good for 465.9 YPG with 304.5 in the air and 161.4 on the ground.

Defensively, SMU is allowing 415.6 YPG while Virginia is giving up 466.0. The Mustangs are permitting 278.1 in the air and 137.5 on the ground. Conversely, the Cavaliers are allowing teams 225.8 in rushing. They are permitting 240.2 YPG in passing.

SMU vs Virginia Prediction - Key Players

The Mustangs will be without two-of-three top wide receivers, as Reggie Roberson Jr. (51 REC, 625 YDs, 12.3 AVG, 6 TDs) and Danny Gray (41 REC, 803 YDs, 14.6 AVG, 9 TDs) opt out. That leaves Rashee Rice (64 REC, 670 YDs, 9 TDs) as the lone premium wideout. The means QB Tanner Mordecai (3,628 YDs, 67.8 COMP%, 39 TDs, 12 INTs, 16 SCKs) will look to wideouts Roderick Daniels Jr. and Jordan Kerley and tight end Grant Calcaterra to take up the slack. Contributions by running backs Tre Siggers (147 ATT, 727 YDs, 4.9 AVG, 9 TDs) and Ulysses Bentley IV (96 ATT, 610 YDs, 6.4 AVG, 4 TDs) will be essential. Top performers upfront on defense include tackle DeVere Levelston (6.5 SCKs) and ends Gary Wiley (4.5 SCKs, 2 PD) and Turner Coxe (6 SCKs, 1 PD, 3 FF). Also, linebacker Isaac Slade-Matautia (2 PD, 2 INTs) and deep back Trevor Denbow (2 PD, 2 INTs) are tough against the pass.

Virginia QB Brennan Armstrong (4,449 YDs, 65.2 COMP%, 31 TDs, 10 INTs, 31 SCKs) is a dual threat and excellent pocket passer. Armstrong has rushed for nine scores. Plus, he has a receiving group that is five deep. Wideout Dontayvion Wicks leads the group. He comes to the game with 57 catches, 1,203 yards, and nine scores. Running back Wayne Taulapapa has rushed for 324 yards on 64 carries averaging 5.2 YPA and scoring two TDs. Wideout Keytaon Thompson, who’s caught 77 passes for 990 yards and two scores, has rushed for 247 yards on 39 attempts. He’s averaging 6.3 YPA and has scored four rushing TDs.

SMU vs Virginia Prediction

This is one of the tougher games to bet on due to the fact that we’re unsure exactly which players for Virginia will decide to opt out. Plus, there’s the COVID issue, which can suddenly decimate a team. We do know that two of SMU’s star wideouts, Roberson and Gray, will definitely miss the game. With that in mind and considering the depth of the Cav offense, our SMU vs Virginia prediction is the Cavaliers at -2.5 (-115). We project that SMU will score 28 and Virginia 36. We’re going with under 71.0 (-115).

Sports Betting Smarts is previewing and predicting every one of this season’s 41 college football bowl games. In the first two weeks, we went 22-10 (69%).

2021 Fenway Bowl - SMU vs Virginia Summary

Spread - Virginia -2.5 (-115)

Over/Under - Under 71.0 (-115)