#12 Pittsburgh Panthers vs #10 Michigan State Spartans 2021 Peach Bowl

This Pittsburgh vs Michigan State prediction for the 2021 Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl is our third of four picks for Thursday, December 30. The #12 Pittsburgh Panthers (7-5) were 7-1 in the ACC, as they finished first in the West. The Panthers won their last five games. including the title match with ACC East winner Wake Forest. The score in that game was 45-21. In the Big Ten, the #10 Michigan State Spartans (8-4) went 7-2. The Spartans finished third in the East behind Michigan and Ohio State. They come to this bowl having won three of their last five regular-season games. One of those victories was against rival and playoff bound Michigan 37-33.

Peach Bowl Spread and Totals Odds

In this game, Pittsburgh is the underdog at +3.0 (-110). On the other hand, Michigan State is -3.0 (-110). The over/under is 56.0 with the over at -105 and the under -115. The 2021 Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl will be played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA with kickoff at 7:00 pm ET. The game is on ESPN.

Panthers vs Spartans Pick - Stats

The Panthers are better than the Spartans in points per game 43-to-31.9. Also, on defense, Pitt is a bit stingier than MSU, allowing opponents 23.1 PPG, while the Michigan State defense is giving up 25.7 PPG. In terms of offensive yards, the Panthers are generating 504.3 per game with 350.2 being in the air. Michigan State is averaging 430.9 offensive yards per game with 185.6 in rushing and 245.3 passing. On defense, Pitt is allowing 348.6 YPG with 257.4 in the air and 91.2 on the ground. Our Pittsburgh vs Michigan State prediction finds that the Spartans are permitting opponents 455.6 YPG. Of those total defensive yards, 337.4 are passing and 117.9 rushing.

Pittsburgh vs Michigan State Prediction - Key Players

Opt outs are huge in this game for the Panthers as quarterback and Heisman Trophy finalist Kenny Pickett (4,319 YDs, 67.2 COMP%, 42 TDs, 7 INTs, 29 SCKs) will not attend Peach Bowl in order to prep for the NFL Draft, leaving junior Nick Patti (12/14, 140 YDs, 85.7 COMP%, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 0 SCKs) as the starter. Wide receiver Taysir Mack (27 REC, 461 YDs, 3 TDs) has also opted out of the Peach Bowl. Additionally, offensive coordinator Mark Whipple has gone to Nebraska. On defensive, cornerback Damarri Mathis (5 PD, 2 INTs) has opted out.

Three-of-four top pass catchers, wideouts Jordan Addison and Jared Wayne and tight end Lucas Krull, will play for Pittsburgh. Addison leads all Panther receivers with 93 catches, 1,479 yards, and 17 receiving TDs. Three solid running backs also return for Pitt with Israel Abanikanda leading the way with 635 yards, 5.4 AVG, and seven scores. On defense, the sack-attack, which has accumulated 51 QB bringdowns, is led by DLs Habakkuk Baldonado (SCKs) and Calijah Kancey (7 SCKs). LB SirVocea Dennis, who has four sacks, leads the team in tackles with 76 while DB Erick Hallett has notched seven PD and three INTs.

Although Michigan State running back Kenneth Walker III (1,636 YDs, 18 TDs) has opted out for the draft, wideout Jalen Nailor (31 REC, 587 YDs, 18.9 AVG, 6 TDs) will play. Along with Nailor, MSU quarterback Payton Thorne (2,886 YDs, 64.8 COMP%, 24 TDs, 9 INTs, 18 SCKs) will be looking to connect with top pass catcher Jayden Reed (53 RECF, 946 YDs, 8 TDs). With running back Walker gone, the Spartan ground game is greatly diminished. Jordon Simmons will likely get carries. This season, he rushed for 255 yards on 54 carries, averaging 4.7 YPA. He does not have a TD. The Michigan defense, which has 38 sacks, includes ends Jacub Panasiuk (6 SCKS) and Jeff Pietrowski (5.5 SCKs). Safety Angelo Grose (6 PD, 1 INT) and cornerback Ronald Williams (8 PD, 1 INT) anchor the secondary.

Pittsburgh vs Michigan State Prediction

This should be quite a defensive battle, as both teams have lost top talent responsible for generating points. We expect the game will be won in the trenches. If that is the case, then we like the Panthers at +3.0 (-110). Also, our Pittsburgh vs Michigan State prediction for the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl finds that scoring will likely be at a minimum. We’re projecting a final score of 27-20. With that in mind, we’re taking under 56.0 (-115).

Sports Betting Smarts is previewing and predicting every one of this season’s 41 college football bowl games. In the first two weeks, we went 22-10 (69%).

2021 Peach Bowl - Pittsburgh vs Michigan State Summary

Spread - Pittsburgh +3.0 (-110)

Over/Under - Under 56.0 (-115)