New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Wildcard Pick
A very cold Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY is the setting for our New England vs Buffalo prediction. In this NFL Wildcard, the Bills are favored by -4.5 (-105). The underdog Patriots are listed at +4.5 (-106). The total is 43.5 with the over at -105 and under at -115.
The New England Patriots (10-7 Overall, 6-2 Away) finished second in the AFC East. They have struggled the last four weeks, going 1-3. However, the Buffalo Bills (11-6 Overall, 6-3 Home) finished strong, winning their last four contests. That included a 33-21 victory over the Patriots at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA.
This NFL Wildcard game will kick off at 8:15 pm ET on Saturday, January 15. Temperatures at game time will be 6 degrees with winds from the ENE at 7 mph and gusts up to 10 mph. It will be clear with zero chance of precipitation. The game will be on CBS.
New England vs Buffalo Prediction – Keys
Statistically, our New England vs Buffalo prediction notes that these two teams are close statistically. The Bills are a tad better in points per game (28.4-27.2) and in defensive points (17.0-17.8). Buffalo is averaging 381.9 YPG while New England is recording 353.4. The Bills are a bit better than the Pats in passing yards (252.0-226.9). Each team is averaging just under 230 YPG in rushing. On defense, Buffalo leads the league in defensive yards per game allowing 272.8 while New England is giving up 310.8. They are number one and two in passing yards allowed per game with the Bills allowing the fewest (163.0-187.1). In rushing yards, Buffalo is better by about 24 (1098.-123.7).
Pats - Players
At QB, Mac Jones (67.6 COMP%, 3,801 YDs, 22 TDs, 13 INTs, 28 SCKs) has had a solid rookie season. However, as of late, he has struggled. Leading wideout Jakobi Meyers (83 REC, 866 YDs, 10.4 AVG, 2 TDs) is questionable. Five other players come to this game with 28 catches or more. Tight end Hunter Henry leads the team with nine TD receptions. Leading rusher Damien Harris, who has scored 15 TDs and gained a total of 929 yards, is also questionable. The defense is deep and includes lineback Matthew Judon, who has 12.5 sacks, corner J.C. Jackson, who’s defended 23 passes and recorded eight picks, and safety Kyle Duggar, who’s made five interceptions and four PD.
Bills - Players
Our New England vs Buffalo prediction notes that QB Josh Allen (63.3 COMP%, 4,407 YDs, 36 TDs, 15 TDs, 26 SCKs) is a dual threat who’s averaging 6.3 YPA in rushing and scored six touchdowns on the ground and gained 763 yards. Six Buffalo receivers have 35 or more catches with wideout Stefon Diggs leading the unit with 103 receptions, 1,225 yards, and 10 TDs. RB Devin Singletary (188 ATT, 870 YDs, 4.6 YPA, 7 TDs) is the team’s top rusher. The secondary includes top-notch safeties Jordan Poyer (9 PD, 5 INTs) and Micah Hyde (10 PD, 5 TDs). Linebacker Matt Milano (3 SCKs, 15 TFF, 5 PD, 2 FR) is a premium defender, while LB Tremaine Edmunds tops the team with 108 total tackles, 70 solo, and 38 assists.
New England vs Buffalo Prediction - Spread & Totals
In our New England vs Buffalo prediction, we find that the Bills have the advantage at quarterback in terms of versatility and experience. Plus, they come to this game healthier than the Pats and deeper on offense. In terms of matchups, the two defenses are very close. We’re taking Buffalo at -4.5 (-105). We expect the frigid weather will affect this contest with the result being a loew score. Our projection is Buffalo 21 and New England 10. With that, we like under 43.5 (-115).
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Summary – New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Wildcard Pick:
Point Spread Pick – Buffalo Bills at -4.5 (-105)
Totals Pick - Under 43.5 (-115)
