Mountain West Conference Preview 2021
Our Mountain West preview 2021 projects the Boise State Broncos to be dominant in the Mountain Division. There appears to be a clear delineation in that division between the Broncos and all other teams. Recently, Boise State has dominated the Mountain Division, winning it the past four seasons. On the other hand, the MWC’s West Division has a logjam at the top, as three teams look to compete for the top spot. Of that trio of clubs, we like the Nevada Wolf Pack over the other two, which are the San Diego State Aztecs and San Jose State Spartans. Please note, any of these three teams can win the West.
Mountain West Preview 2021 – Team Profiles and Standings
In the MWC, we’ve targeted 10 key games to which you’ll want to pay special attention. The first matchup is an early one between Hawaii and UCLA. Note that when Rainbow Warriors head coach Todd Graham was the helmsman for Arizona State, he went 3-3 against the Bruins. These two teams meet on August 28 at UCLA.
The Boise State at UCF matchup on September 4 brings together two of the top teams in Group of Five programs and features the debuts of both of their coaches, Andy Avalos (Boise State) and Gus Malzahn (UCF). September rounds out with three games. The first two are played on the 11th, as San Diego State is at Arizona and Air Force at Navy. We like SDSU versus the Pac-12 team while the second matchup for the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy looks like a win for the Falcons. Finally, Oklahoma State is at Boise State (Sep. 18). A big test for the Broncos as the Cowboys will likely be favored.
On October 9, Boise State plays BYU and Wyoming is at Air Force. The Broncos seek redemption after being embarrassed by the Cougars 51-17 in their last meeting. The Cowboys and Falcons are featured in a major Mountain Division matchup. A huge game has San Diego State at San Jose State on October 16. This is a major divisional contest and should be a close one. Again, in the West, Nevada and Fresno State meet for a shootout on October 23. We like the Pack. Finally, November 6, it’s San Jose State versus Nevada. This game could decide the West.
Mountain Division
Once again, we expect that Boise State will be the top team in the Mountain Division. Competition will come from Wyoming and Air Force. However, both the Cowboys and Falcons have major questions when it comes to the air attack. Both teams look to bring potent ground games and two of the best O-lines in the conference to the game. The Colorado Rams have been in decline the past three seasons. We expect this season that they will struggle to even come close to 500. Utah State and New Mexico round out the bottom of the Mountain Division.
1. Boise State Broncos
Our Mountain West preview 2021 observes that the last four seasons this team has made it to the conference title games, winning two and losing two. Last season, they were 5-0 in MW and 7-1 overall. The bottom fell out for the Broncos in the postseason when they lost the MW Championship to San Jose State 20-34 and lost the Las Vegas Bowl to Washington 7-38. Nine players return on offense and eight on D. Junior QB Hank Bachmeier is solid but not spectacular. Former USC transfer Jack Sears, who completed 23-of-27 passes for Boise State last season, will compete to start. The three top pass catchers, WRs Khalil Shakir and C.T. Thomas and TE Riley Smith, are back. Andrew Van Buren (111 ATT, 382 YDs, 3.4 AVG, 8 TDs) anchors the ground game, which was not very effective last season. The good news is George Holani, a 1,000-yard rusher in 2019, is back after missing most of last season. Four-of-five starters return to the O-line, which looks to be solid.
The D-line is sound, as it includes DE Shane Irwin, who recorded six sacks in 2020, and DT Scott Matlock, who was good for two sacks and 2.5 TFL. This is the best part of the defense, while the linebacking unit is a close second. WLB Riley Whimpey, who led the team with 61 tackles while also posting one sack, 6.5 TFL, and two PBU, is a premium player. Edge rusher Demitri Washington could have a breakout season. In the secondary, NB Kekaula Kaniho, who had two TFL and seven PBU, is a playmaker, while safeties J.L. Skinner and Tyreque Jones are valuable defenders.
2. Wyoming Cowboys
Last season, the Wyoming pass attack was hampered by the loss of QB Sean Chambers. Chambers is back. However, he’ll have competition from red shirt freshman Levi Williams who gained valuable experience last season. The passing game, which was ranked ninth in the conference and 113th in the nation, sees its top-four performers return. None of them caught a TD pass last season. Experienced senior wideout Ayden Eberhardt will be looked to for leadership and to upgrade his performance. The rush attack is in good hands, as Xazavian Valladay and Trey Smith return after averaging 5.6 and 5.5 YPA and making four and five TDs respectively. The O-line is the best in the conference and includes All-MW center Keegan Cryder.
Eleven starters return to a defense that last season was ranked 16th in the nation in total defense and in the top 30 in 10 defensive categories. After opting out in 2020, DE Solomon Byrd is back. In 2019, he led the Cowboys with 6.5 sacks. At the other end, senior Garrett Crall (21 TKLs, 2 SCKs, 1 TFL) offers premium D-chops. The linebacking unit and secondary are both strong. MLB Chad Muma, who led the team last season with 72 tackles, three sacks, and five TFL, returns to anchor the middle. Corner C.J. Coldon leads what is a deep and experienced secondary. Last year, he was good for 26 tackles, three PBU, and two INTs. In 2020, the team went 2-4, finishing eighth. They’ll do better this season.
3. Air Force Falcons
In 2020, the Air Force was 2-2 MW and 3-3 overall. They ended up seventh in the MW. There’s plenty of competition for the quarterback spot. Last season, the Falcon pass attack was ranked 12th in the MW and 126th in the nation. Haaziq Daniels, who completed 55.6 percent of his passes, tossing three TD passes and three INTs, is the frontrunner. WR David Cormier has the potential to be a standout performer this season. However, the receiving unit is thin. The three top rushers from 2020 are back, including Brad Roberts who posted 64 carries for 461 yards and five TDs while averaging 7.2 YPA. Daniels averaged 5.4 YPA and scored three times. The offensive line is all new but expected to be one of the better in the league.
Last season, the Air Force defense was stalwart. Nine starters return, including DE Jordan Jackson who missed last season. At 6’5” and 280 lbs., he’s an imposing force. LB Demonte Meeks, who in 2019 recorded 98 tackles, missed last season. He brings game. Free safety Corvan Taylor, who made 33 tackles and had two picks last year, is the lynchpin in the secondary.
4. Colorado State Rams
Our Mountain West preview 2021 notes that the Rams played a truncated schedule last season going 1-3. They averaged just 22.2 PPG (10th MW, 106th Nationally) and allowed 35.8 PPG (11th MW, 104th Nationally). QB Todd Centeio came from Temple last season and played sparingly. Although he doesn’t have big numbers, Centeio is dependable and a sound leader. Although the pass attack won’t be explosive, it should get the job done, as future NFL tight end Trey McBride (22 REC, 330 Yds, 15.0 YPC, 4 TDs) and WR Dante Wright (20 REC, 315 YDs, 15.8 YPC, 0 TDs) return. The two top running backs, Marcus McElroy Jr. and A’Jon Vivens, are back after combining for 320 yards and four TDs. Most of the offensive line also returns.
Last year, the defense was tough versus the run. Three of the starting four front men, Scott Patchan, Manny Jones, and Toby McBride, return for a second senior season. They averaged four sacks per game last season with Patchan totaling 5.5. Also back are the three starting LBs from 2020. Last season, LB Dequan Jackson led the Rams with 40 tackles while adding two sacks, 3.5 TFL, and one QBH. He’s a solid leader. Temple transfer Linwood Crump adds depth to the secondary, which includes four veteran players.
5. Utah State Aggies
Last year, after two straight winning seasons, the Aggies went 1-5. Our Mountain West preview 2021 projects that once again this team will struggle. First-year head coach Blake Anderson, who has a 51-37 NCAAF record over seven years, will look to infuse a fast-paced offense into a team that averaged 15.5 PPG (12th MW, 124th Nationally). Arkansas transfer QB Logan Bonner (1,863 YDs, 18 TDs) could be the answer. There’s talent at tight end and in the wide receiving unit. Deven Tompkins returns as the leading receiver with 20 catches. QB Andrew Peasley led the team last season with 195 yards and an 8.9 YPA average. RB Devonta’e Henry-Cole is back after averaging 4.4 YPA. Four starters return to the O-line.
Although nine starters are back on defense, this is a group that allowed 35.2 PPG (10th MW, 101st Nationally). The Aggies will go with a 4-3 alignment that includes Nick Heninger (42 TKLs, 3 SCKs, 4 TFL) at DE and Marcus Moore (20 TKLs, 2 SCKs, 0.5 TFL) at DT. Still, this group is questionable. The LB unit, which is the soundest group on this side of the ball, includes Utah State’s top tackler A.J. Vongphachanh (50 TKLs, 3 SCKs, 0.5 TFL, 1 PBU). Strong safety Shaq Bond (47 TKLs, 6 TFL, 3 PBU, 1 INT) leads the secondary. The defense welcomes a strong group of transfers that should add depth.
6. New Mexico Lobos
Our Mountain West preview 2021 observes that the Lobos have not posted a winning mark since 2016 when they went 9-4. The last four years, New Mexico has won 10 and lost 33. Kentucky transfer Terry Wilson will likely start at QB. Last season with the Wildcats, he threw for 1,187 yards hitting for seven scores while giving up four picks. In his career with Kentucky, Wilson posted a 17-8 record. Although the receiving unit is thin, the Lobos do see their two top pass catchers return. RB Bobby Cole recorded 97 carries last season, gaining 548 yards, averaging 5.6 YPA, and scoring six TDs. Center Kyle Stapley, a four-year starter, anchors what is an experienced line.
More is expected from a defense that offered just 14 sacks last season. DE Joey Noble recorded 40 tackles, four sacks, and one TFL, while NT Ben Gansallo was good for three sacks and DE Jake Saltonstall recorded two. Veterans Devin Sanders, who had 32 tackles, and Reco Hannah work the OLB spots, providing mentoring for the young MLBs. There’s experience in the secondary. Cornerback Jerrick Reed II (33 TKLs, 3 PBU, 4 INTs) is a quality defender.
West Division
Our Mountain West preview 2021 finds that this division is crowded at the top. Three teams, Nevada, San Diego State, and San Jose State will battle for the top spot. Of that trio, we project that the Wolf Pack will take the West and play Boise State for the MWC championship. Still, all three teams will get bids to bowl games. Plus, we expect Hawaii to once again be in the postseason. The bottom of the West will be occupied by Fresno State and UNLV.
1. Nevada Wolf Pack
Last season, the Wolf Pack went 6-2 in the MW and 7-2 overall, as they earned a trip to the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl where they beat Tulane 38-27. Nevada returns 10 players on each side of the ball. Last season, the offense averaged 30.8 PPG (3rd MW, 46th Nationally). Sophomore Carson Strong, the Mountain West Offense Player of the Year, was explosive, as he passed for 2,858 yards completing 70.1 percent of his passes. He threw 27 TD passes and only four picks. The top seven receivers from last season return, including WR Romeo Doubs and TE Cole Turner who both caught nine TD passes. RB Toa Taua is back after averaging 5.9 YPA while gaining 675 yards and scoring four TDs. Taua also made 31 receptions for 214 yards and one score. The O-line is seasoned and stable.
On defense, the Pack held teams to 23.3 PPG (5th MW, 33rd Nationally) and allowed 377.7 YPG (7th MW, 42nd Nationally). Nine players return to this side of the ball, including all four D-line starters. Two-time All-MW lineman Dom Peterson (27 TKLs, 4.5 SCKs, 2.5 TFL) leads the frontline. MLB Lawson Hall, who led the team with 65 tackles while also posting three sacks, 5.5 TFL, and one interception, is the glue of the D. Potential all-conference candidate, senior corner Berdale Robins (27 TKLs, 5 PBU, 1 INT), is the key to the Wolf Pack’s secondary. The team is sound on this side of the ball.
2. San Diego State Aztecs
Last year, SDSU went 4-2 in the MW and 4-4 overall finishing fourth. The last time this team posted a losing mark was a dozen years ago. Our Mountain West preview 2021 notes that this season, the Aztecs will be back in form and competing for the top spot in the West. There are choices at quarterback, including Mississippi State transfer Jalen Mayden and senior Lucas Johnson. The receiving corps offers talent but not much depth. TE Daniel Bellinger and WR Jesse Matthews are premium players. Mississippi State transfer Tyrell Shavers brings additional talent to the wideout group. The ground unit is deep and includes Greg Bell. Last year, Bell averaged 5.6 YPA, crossing the goal line a half-dozen times. First-team All-MW tackle Zachary Thomas is the glue on the line.
Eight players return to a defense that was very stingy last season, allowing 17.8 PPG (2nd MW, 11 Nationally). They were third in the country in total defense. The 3-3 front sees all starters come back. DE Cameron Thomas was unrelenting, recording four sacks, 5.5 TFL, and 14 QBH. The linebacking unit includes Caden McDonald on the outside. McDonald posted 4.5 sacks, 5.5 TFL, three PBU, and 10 QBH. Three premium players in the secondary must be replaced. Included in that group is cornerback Darren Hall who had 38 tackles, two TFL, six PBU, and three INTs. Safety Trenton Thompson returns after making 36 tackles, 4.5 TFL, and three PBU.
3. San Jose State Spartans
The Spartans, who were 6-0 in the MW and 7-1 overall, beat Boise State 34-20 last season for the league championship. They played Ball State in the Arizona Bowl, losing 13-34. The offense, which averaged 28.6 PPG (4th MW, 62nd Nationally), returns nine starters, including QB Nick Starkel. Starkel completed 64.2 percent of his passes, hitting for 17 scores while tossing seven picks. Although the two top pass catchers from last season are gone, this is still a good group, Tight end Derrick Deese caught five TD passes and wide receiver Isaiah Hamilton averaged 15.8 YPC, scoring twice. RB Tyler Nevens averaged 7.8 YPA and scored five TDs. The O-line is deep and the best unit on this side of the ball.
The San Jose State defense, which allowed 19.9 PPG (3rd MW, 15th Nationally), returns 10 starters. First-team All-MW selection Viliami Fehoko returns to play end. Fehoko, who recorded 36 tackles, six sacks, 6.5 TFL, three PBU, and five QBH, is unrelenting. On the other end, it’s MW Defensive Player of the Year Cade Hall. Hall recorded 10 sacks, two TFL, and two QBH. This is the top D-line in the league. ILB Kyle Harmon, another All-MW performer, returns as the team’s top tackler (78). The secondary is deep. If any group needs an uptick, it’s this one that made just three picks last year.
4. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Last year, the Rainbow Warriors were 5-4 overall and 4-4 in the MW, finishing fifth. Hawaii beat Houston 28-14 in the New Mexico Bowl. It was their third straight bowl appearance. Last season, QB Chevan Cordeiro led the team in passing (2,083 yards) and rushing 483 yards. He completed 62.3 percent of his passes, tossing 14 TD passes and six INTs. Plus, he averaged 4.2 YPA and scored seven rushing touchdowns. The receiving group includes former quarterback Calvin Turner. Turner caught 33 passes and scored six times. He also averaged 5.5 YPA rushing, scoring four times, and averaged 27.0 yards per kick return, bringing one back for a score. The offensive line is the best unit on this side of the ball.
All 11 starters return on defense. That’s promising, but for this group to be successful, they must stop the run. Last season, the Rainbow Warrior defense allowed 211.7 YPG rushing (9th MW, 105th Nationally). NT Blessman Ta’ala leads the three front men. MLB Darius Muasau is the anchor for the linebacking unit. Last season, he led the team in tackles (104), sacks (4), and QBH (7). OLB Khoury Bethley, who was second in tackles (70) and sacks (3), recorded six TFL and six PBU. The deep backs are the best aspect of this D. Last season, they totaled 12 INTs, 30 PBU, and 27 QBH.
5. Fresno State Bulldogs
Our Mountain West preview 2021 notes that the last two seasons this team has been in decline. Last season, they were 3-3, finishing sixth in the conference. The Bulldogs averaged 32.8 PPG (2nd MW, 36th Nationally). They put the top passing offense in the conference on the field. Their 356.3 YPG ranked fifth in the nation. Their 123.0 YPG rushing ranked 10th in the MW and 106th in the country. QB Jake Haener averaged 336.8 passing YPG last season, tossing 14 TDs and five INTs. He’s got the top receiving group in the conference that includes three potential number one pass catchers. WR Jalen Cropper led the team with 37 receptions, 520 yards, and five scores. The rush attack is also solid with Ronnie Rivers leading the way. In 2020, he scored seven TDs averaging 5.1 YPA. One issue is the offensive line, which is thin.
The Bulldogs have one of the best offenses in the MW, but their defense is not quite as accomplished. On D, they allowed 30.0 PPG (8th MW, 68th Nationally) and gave up 212.3 YPG in rushing, ranking 10th in the conference and 106th overall. However, with 10 starters returning on D, we expect this side of the ball to perform better. Last season, DE David Perales recorded 28 tackles, four sacks, and five TFL. At the other end, Kwami Jones posted five sacks and one TFL. The D-line is the best unit on this side of the ball. The linebacking group is good, but not as deep as the front. Corner Bralyn Lux, who broke up four passes and grabbed one pick last season, is the anchor of the secondary.
6. UNLV Rebels
In 2020, UNLV finished last in the conference, as they recorded an 0-6 record. Our Mountain West preview 2021 observes that since 2000, the Rebels have posted a winning mark just twice with the last one being in 2013 (7-6). Last year, UNLV scored 17.3 PPG (11th MW, 119th Nationally) and allowed 38.0 PPG (12th MW, 119th Nationally). The starting quarterback will likely either be SMU transfer Justin Rogers or sophomore Doug Brumfield. Both may see action this season. WR Kyle Williams, who caught 35 passes for 426 yards, tops the receiving corps. Charles Williams leads the ground attack, accumulating 496 yards on 116 carries for four TDs and 4.3 YPA. The offensive line is a major question mark.
There are 10 starters returning on defense. The line gets a boost with the addition of USC transfer Connor Murphy at end. Jacoby Windmon moves from end to the Jack spot after posting 39 tackles, five sacks, 1.5 TFL, and two PBU. In 2020, WLB Adam Plant was a premium performer, as he notched 31 tackles, 3.5 sacks, and 3.5 TFL. The secondary sees strong safety Bryce Jackson (42 TKLs) and free safety Tre Caine (34 TKLs) return to lead the unit. Can this side of the ball step up in 2021?
2021 Bowl Matchups
Arizona Bowl: Nevada vs. Western Michigan
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: San Diego State vs. Miami (OH)
First Responder Bowl: Hawaii vs. Marshall
Frisco Bowl: Air Force vs. SMU
Hawaii Bowl: San Jose State vs Houston
Los Angeles Bowl: Boise State vs. UCLA
New Mexico Bowl: Wyoming vs. Liberty
Mountain West Preview 2021 – Final Thoughts
Our Mountain West Preview 2021 sees the Boise State Broncos and Nevada Wolf Pack meeting in the conference title game. In the last four postseason matchups, the Broncos are 2-2. Last season, they lost the championship game to San Jose State 20-34. This year, we find that Boise State will take the Mountain West Conference Championship. Also, we project that seven-of-12 conference teams will participate in a bowl matchup.