Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos Week 18 Pick
It’s our NFL Week 18 preview which means it is time for our Kansas City vs Denver prediction for Saturday, January 8, 2022. In this final week of the 2021-22 NFL season, the Kansas City Chiefs (11-5 Overall, 4-3 Away) are first in the AFC West. With a win this week and a Tennessee loss, the Chiefs will earn the bye in the first week of the playoffs. KC is coming off a tough 34-31 loss to Cincinnati this past Sunday. Prior to dropping that game, the Chiefs had put together a six-game winning streak. On the other hand, the Denver Broncos (7-9, Overall, 4-4 Home), who are last in the AFC West and out of the postseason, have lost three straight games and five of their last seven.
This NFL Week 18 game will kick off at 4:30 pm ET. The game will be played at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, CO. Temperatures at game time will be in the mid-to-low 30s with winds from the NNW at 5 mph and gusts up to 8 mph. There is a 51 percent chance of snow. The game will be carried on ESPN, ABC, and ESPN+.
Kansas City vs Denver Prediction – Keys
Statistically, our Kansas City vs Denver prediction finds that the Chiefs are better in offensive points per game (28.3-19.4). However, Denver is better when it comes to defensive points (18.4-21.3). In terms of offensive yards, KC’s 292 passing yards outpace the Broncos’ air game by about 60 yards. On defense, the Chiefs are allowing about 46 more yards than Denver with those excessive yards being in the air. On D, the huge statistic that sticks out is Kansas City’s forced and recovered fumbles numbers, which come in at 17 and 13 respectively.
Chiefs - Players
At QB, Patrick Mahomes has been inconsistent this season. However, he has performed better overall in the second half. Wideout Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce are premium targets. Although running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire is out, Darrel Williams (541 YDs, 3.9 AVG, 6 TDs) has proven to be a capable rusher.
Broncos - Players
Drew Lock will quarterback for Denver. Lock, who has appeared in five games this season and has one win, has not thrown a pick in his last three games. He’ll be looking to connect with wideouts Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick and tight end Noah Fant. The trio has compiled 11 TD receptions. Running backs Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon III, who are each averaging over 4-yards-per-rush and have combined for 1,600 yards, have four and seven TDs respectively.
Kansas City vs Denver Prediction - Spread & Totals
KC must do three things in this game. They have to start quickly with Mahomes playing consistently from the very beginning. The Chief defense must take advantage of a weak Denver O-line and put pressure on Lock. Finally, they must play a full 60 minutes. That’s something the Chiefs did not do last week. Denver will need to shut down Kansas City’s fine third-down efforts, which have resulted in a 51 percent success rate. The Broncos have not been very good at controlling opponent third-down efforts, as they have been unsuccessful over 40 percent of the time.
The Chiefs are the favorite at -10.5 (-104), while the best spread for underdog Denver is +11.0 (-110). We think KC will control the Denver offense and Mahomes and company will put out a solid effort. Thus, we like the Chiefs at -10.5 (-104). The total is 45.0 with the over at -102 and under at -109. We are taking the under.
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Summary – Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos Week 18 Pick:
Point Spread Pick – Kansas City Chiefs at -10.5 (-104)
Totals Pick - Under 45.0 (-109)
