American Athletic Conference Preview 2021
Our AAC preview 2021 finds that the Cincinnati Bearcats are the team to beat. After two 4-8 seasons in 2016 and 2017, the Bearcats posted three-straight winning seasons, and last year, they captured the AAC title. If they have any competition within the conference, it’ll come from the UCF Knights, or Houston Cougars. UCF has a top-flight offense and average D, while Houston brings a decent defense and a middling offense. On the other hand, the Bearcats are strong on both sides of the ball.
The middle of the conference looks to be the SMU Mustangs, Tulsa Golden Hurricane, Memphis Tigers and Tulane Green Wave. We expect that each of these teams will, at the very least, record a 6-6 record. After that, it’s the East Carolina Pirates, Navy Midshipmen, USF Bulls, and Temple Owls.
AAC Preview 2021 – Team Profiles and Standings
AAC teams will be tested out-of-conference. UCF plays Boise State on Sep. 4. This is the first-ever contest between two of the best Group of Five clubs. On Sep. 11, Tulsa takes on Oklahoma State. The Golden Hurricane have lost to OSU eight straight times. Tulsa came close last season, losing 7-16. The SEC matchup of Memphis at Mississippi State is a huge test for the Tigers. For the Bearcats, their contest versus Indiana is massive. Cincinnati has lost five straight to the Hoosiers. Both games take place on Sep. 18. SMU and TCU will play on Sep. 25 in what is part of their Iron Skillet series. The Mustangs have a chance to make it two straight against the Horned Frogs.
Our AAC preview 2021 observes that on Oct. 1 the Houston and Tulsa matchup is big for both teams. Whoever wins that contest has a shot at the AAC title. At the end of the month, SMU travels to Houston, as the Mustangs try to extend their two-game winning streak over the Cougars (Oct. 30). In the middle of the month, UCF plays a big game at Cincinnati (Oct. 16) and then the Knights host the Memphis Tigers (Oct 22). On November 6, Cincinnati hosts Tulsa in a rematch of last year’s championship game, which the Bearcats won. December 11 sees one of the nation’s biggest rivalries unfold as Army plays Navy at neutral MetLife Stadium.
1. Cincinnati Bearcats
The Bearcats have the talent and depth to compete on both sides of the ball. With veteran QB Desmond Ridder returning and a sound corps of experienced receivers, this team has the potential to dominate the AAC. Plus, the defense, which was one of the best in the nation last year, welcomes back six starters including DE Myjai Sanders (7.0 sacks), WLB Darrian Beavers (58 tackles), and CB Coby Bryant (4 INTs). In four years, coach Luke Fickell (35-14 with Cincinnati) has turned this team into a major contender. In the past three seasons, the Bearcats have posted a record of 31-6. Big out-of-conference tests will be Indiana (Sep. 18) and Notre Dame (Oct. 2). Both will be played on the road.
2. UCF Knights
New head coach Gus Malzahn (77-38 in 9 Years) will likely be airing it out a lot. One reason is third year QB Dillon Gabriel. Last season, he threw for over 3,500 yards, hitting on 32 TD passes while tossing just four picks. Two of the team’s leading wideouts return as does TE Jake Hescock. Hescock is another touchdown threat. The defense returns just four starters, and there are definitely holes on this side of the ball. This team has a very kind schedule, which will help.
3. Houston Cougars
The Cougars return seven starters on offense and nine on D. Last season, QB Clayton Tune threw 15 TD passes and rushed for five more scores. He also threw 10 INTs. The receiving corps is a hodgepodge, while the ground game looks solid with Mulbah Car leading the way. The Houston defense should be one of the best in the conference. They’re solid upfront, in the middle, and in back. The Cougar -10 turnover margin ranked 11th in the AAC and 120th in the nation. Houston does have one of the thinnest schedules in the nation. Out of conference contests include Texas Tech, Rice, and Grambling.
4. SMU Mustangs
Can the Mustangs replace star quarterback Shane Buechele and the 3,000-plus yards he threw for each of the past two seasons? Oklahoma transfer Tanner Mordecai could be the solution or perhaps four-star recruit Preston Stone can step up? The ground game, which is anchored by Ulysses Bentley, is three deep. Last year, Bentley ran for 913 yards and 11 TDs. The offensive line is questionable. Although the D-line is also thin, there’s talent as it includes two expert QB hasslers in Elijah Chatman and Junior Aho. Corner Brandon Crossley, who grabbed four picks and defended five passes, is a premium defender.
5. Tulsa Golden Hurricane
The Golden Hurricane come to this season with a tough and experienced offensive line and a premium receiving corps. Junior QB Davis Brin takes over for Zach Smith. In limited action last season, Brin showed that he had a strong and accurate arm. Our AAC preview 2021 notes that star RB Shamari Brooks returns after missing last season due to a torn ACL. On defense, tackle Jaxon Player (3 SCKs, 6.5 TFL, 5 QBH) anchors the front, while MLB Justin Wright (62 TKLs, 1.5 SCKs, 7.5 TFL, 1 INT) is the linebacking groups lynchpin. The Golden Hurricane play Ohio State (Sep. 18). That will certainly be a major test.
6. Memphis Tigers
Last season’s star QB Brady White (31 TDs, 10 INTs) is gone. The money is on either Arizona transfer Grant Gunnell or LSU transfer Peter Parish taking over. The good news is that three of the team’s top receivers return, including Calvin Austin (11 TDs). The Memphis rush attack is four deep; however, the O-line is mediocre. On the other side of the ball, the linebacking unit is the strongest group. It includes SLB Thomas Pickens (58 TKLs, 3.5 TFL, 3 PBU, 3 QBH) and MLB JJ Russell (53 TKLs, 3 SCKs, 2 TFL, 2 PBU, 1 INT, 2 QBH). Sophomore free safety Quindell Johnson (81 TKLs, 2 TFL, 5 PBU, 3 INTs) is a huge talent.
7. Tulane Green Wave
The offense is led by QB Michael Pratt (1,806 Yds, 20 TDs, 8 INTs). Last. Year, he had a good first season, but our AAC preview 2021 observes that Pratt needs to improve on his 55.5 percent completion rate. Although not a major running threat, he did rush for eight scores. Last season, the Green Wave’s receiving corps was inconsistent. However, the top four pass catchers return. If running back Tyjae Spears is fully recovered from his ACL tear, which knocked him out for most of the season, the rush attack will be solid. RB Cameron Carroll (12 TDs) is a power rusher and tough to stop. Last season, the defense could not stop teams on third-and-long and fourth-down situations. Linebackers Dorian Williams (98 TKLs, 4.5 SCKs, 12 TFL, 3 PBU) and Nick Anderson (88 TKLs, 3.5 SCKs, 7 TFL) are the central defenders. The defensive line and secondary are both problematic. Tulane has a tough schedule that includes Oklahoma and Mississippi. A 6-6 record is likely.
8. East Carolina Pirates
The Pirates need more offense as well as better D. QB Holton Ahlers (61.3%, 1,921 Yds, 18 TDs, 9 INTs) is the best part of the offense. Receivers Tyler Snead and C.J. Johnson will be his primary targets. Last season, they combined for 11 TDs. The running game includes two solid ground gainers, Rahjai Harris and Keaton Mitchell. The O-line is better than average. Last season, this team allowed 35.4 PPG. The good news is 10 starters return. They need to utilize last season’s experience and show improvement. This side of the ball is led by linebacker Xavier Smith (72 TKLs, 2.5 SCKs, 5.5 TFL, 6 PBU, 4 QBH). He led East Carolina in tackles, TFL, and PBU. A 6-6 record is possible for East Carolina.
9. Navy Midshipmen
Last season, Navy went 3-4 in conference and 3-7 overall. The Midshipmen averaged just 16.6 PPG on offense while giving up 30.3 PPG. Sophomore QB Xavier Arline, who took snaps in the last two games of 2020, showed promise. There’s talent at running back. However, this group is untested. The O-line is thin and inexperienced. The pass-catching group is also problematic. Seven players return on defense. Like the O-line, the D-line is worrisome. The linebacking and secondary units possess talent. ILB Diego Fagot (72 TKLs, 3 SCKs, 8 TFL, 2 PBU, 2 QBH) and FS Kevin Brennan (68 TKLs, 1.5 TFL, 5 INTs) are the glue on this side of the ball. Our AAC preview 2021 anticipates that this team will struggle to get to .500.
10. USF Bulls
From 2015-2018, the Bulls posted winning records and went to four straight bowl games. In the last two seasons, they’ve recorded five wins and 16 losses. This season we expect that USF will struggle mightily to post some victories. NC State, Florida, and BYU are on their schedule. Cade Fortin, a North Carolina transfer who due to a shoulder injury played two games last season with the Bulls, takes over at QB. He possesses leadership and passing skills. The receiving and rushing units are weak. The O-line is questionable. On defense, the best group is the secondary, which includes corner Daquan Evans who grabbed three picks last season. MLB Antonio Grier (59 TKLs, 3 SCKS, 2.5 TFL) led the team in tackles and sacks last season.
11. Temple Owls
Our AAC preview 2021 anticipates that this team will struggle on both offense and defense. QB Re-al Mitchell is back. Last season, he came from Iowa State but got injured early in the season and saw little action. He’ll try again this season. The two top receivers return. Jadan Blue, who caught five TD passes, was Temple’s top pass catcher last year. The rushing unit is lean and the offensive line lacks the chops needed to get the job done. On defense, MLB William Kwenkeu (48 TKLs, 1 SCK, 3 TFL, 1 PBU, 1 QBH) is the lynchpin on that side of the ball. Cincinnati, Memphis, UCF, Houston, and Tulsa are all on Temple’s schedule, as are nonconference teams Rutgers and Boston College.
2021 Bowl Matchups
Cure Bowl: Tulane vs Army
Fenway Bowl: Memphis vs Boston College
Fiesta Bowl: Cincinnati vs Texas A&M
Frisco Bowl: SMU vs Air Force
Gasparilla Bowl: UCF vs Virgina
Hawaii Bowl: Houston vs San Jose State
Military Bowl: Tulsa vs Wake Forest
AAC Preview 2021 – Final Thoughts
Our AAC Preview 2021 notes that of the Group of Five conferences, this is the top league. Seven-of-11 teams will likely be bowl bound. Four teams look to be tightly clustered at the top. Cincinnati is the primary contender for first with UCF, Houston, and SMU on their heels. This is a very competitive conference.